25 February 2019
08:30
Deleted Account
Z
Zack 22.02.2019 14:57:26
A dm is a special kind of pm where we look at the price of the pm to make a decision.
08:30
So "decision market" is when a prediction market is used for futarchy.
08:30
For example, if you don't know whether to take road A or B, you could make a decision market measuring how long it will take you to arrive vs which road you take.
By looking at the prices of the different outcomes, you can realize that one road will arrive at your destination more quickly.

Since you are using the prices to make a decision, this is called a decision market.
08:36
Deleted Account
1. If I understood you correctly, on DM, there is a following order of actions

1). Ppl make bets, which descision is the best (e. g. to lower or not to lower miner reward for raising VEO price in future)
2). The reward goes lower, if maximal bets were for lowering it
3). But the winner of this betting will be determined only after VEO price will change. If it really rises, than bettor money will be distributed between those who suggested to make reward lower

Is this so?
08:39
2. Do you agree that Amoveo oracles are a sort of DMs (because the decisions are determined by maximal bets)?
SS
08:40
Spike Spiegel
Betting is not on reducing miner's reward but rather about correlation between one public good (Veo price) and miners reward
08:42
Deleted Account
Yes. But this correlation can't be found BEFORE changing reward
MF
08:57
Mr Flintstone
you can find it by measuring the prices of binary option markets
08:57
Described here
08:58
(P1 * P3) - (P2 * P4) if it is positive, then the outcomes are positively correlated. if it is negative, then the outcomes are negatively correlated.
09:37
Deleted Account
Ok, I'll change my second question in a weaker manner.
Can we say that Amoveo oracles are "powered" by DMs (because the decisions are determined by maximal bets)?
09:40
In reply to this message
From this I didn't understood, when the decision is made. Just after comparing prices?
MF
09:49
Mr Flintstone
In reply to this message
once we believe the prices of the markets have told us that it is profitable to do an update, it is like any other update. Nodes need to update their software etc
09:49
but there is an incentive to do this
AFOLABI™ invited AFOLABI™
09:53
Deleted Account
In reply to this message
So the decision is made BEFORE outcome is known. Yes?

And Isn't it a reason to say that Amoveo oracles are powered by decision markets? I'm very interested in that because it would be very useful for educational purpose.

1. Define PMs
2. Defiine DMs
3. Describe Amoveo as a system where PM's smart contracts use DMs as oracles
MF
09:54
Mr Flintstone
In reply to this message
think of the betting separate to the oracle. the amoveo oracle could function by making users manually report on oracle questions as part of syncing the blockchain, but it wouldn’t support many questions at once I wouldn’t think
A
09:54
AFOLABI™
Hello Crypto Community, I am an experience community manager/ambassador, I will like to join your team as a Telegram Mod or Ambassador, kindly DM for Linkedin.

Thanks
MF
09:54
Mr Flintstone
In reply to this message
thanks for your interest but we’re ok
09:55
In reply to this message
without any betting mechanism
10:01
Deleted Account
In reply to this message
if some users report "Trump wins" while others report "Clinton", how to know whom to believe, if there is no betting?
MF
10:04
Mr Flintstone
the amoveo oracle can only report on the beliefs of the community
10:04
the version of amoveo that contains the truth is more valuable than the version that contains a lie
10:05
so there is an incentive to fork amoveo to the truthful version
10:05
betting lets you swap tokens 1:1 between forks which increases the incentive
10:05
and disincentivizes reporting on a lie
10:06
Deleted Account
In reply to this message
If i'm a reporter and want to tell my opinion, should I pay some VEO to participate in oracle work>
10:07
?
10:07
There are 3 possible outcomes for an oracle: True, False, Bad Question

the result of the oracle is determined by which side of the order book has open orders. If one side has open orders for a long enough period of time, then that side wins
10:09
If I understand it, reporters make bets or something like that. The result is determined using the info about their bets
MF
10:12
Mr Flintstone
imagine the rule is that the side that wins the money is the side the oracle settles on. If amoveo doesn’t fork, this is the side with the biggest unmatched bet for 1000 blocks. if amoveo forks, the oracle can settle on anything
10:13
so even if someone bets the most money, it doesn’t mean that’s the side that will win
11:00
Deleted Account
you say about gambler who bets the money on PM (when outcome is unknown) or abour reporter who know outcome and bets the money in order to support his opinion?
11:00
Deleted Account
MF
Mr Flintstone 25.02.2019 10:13:17
so even if someone bets the most money, it doesn’t mean that’s the side that will win
MF
11:16
Mr Flintstone
reporter in the oracle
11:24
Deleted Account
In reply to this message
Ok I underwstood. big money for wrong opinion will result in fork. But fork is possible in other blockchains too, so my main interest is the decision mechanism in "normal" situation then there are no corrupted reporters, only some minority of mistaking ones. Then, the decision will be made according to maximal reporter's bets, yes?
MF
11:40
Mr Flintstone
I think the normal situation is for there to not be too much betting in question oracles
11:41
the game that plays out if people try to make it lie is what enforces that situation to be the normal one
11:42
but yeah, normally it should settle based on the biggest bet technically
11:42
but a small amt
11:46
Deleted Account
Mr Flintstone, [25.02.19 13:42]
but yeah, normally it should settle based on the biggest bet technically

So can we call this a decision market?
EA
13:44
Eric Arsenault
In reply to this message
Thanks for your help Zack, can’t wait for what’s to come
13:50
In reply to this message
😂😂😂😂
Z
14:23
Zack
In reply to this message
You can only bet on something that is public knowledge.
As long as it is easy for anyone to look up who won after the fact, then amoveo can be used to bet on who will win.
14:24
In reply to this message
You can combine multiple bets on amoveo to get the risk profile you want.
We have stable btc for example.
14:27
In reply to this message
It is also theoretically possible that lowering the reward is harmful to the price.
So people that bet for not lowering the reward will win.
14:27
In reply to this message
An amoveo oracle is a way to report facts to the blockchain, that way we can bet on them.
It is one part of a futarchy system.
14:29
In reply to this message
False.
Correlation is measured from the price of the different kinds of shares you can buy in the market.
A futarchy market tells us the decision to make before we can know which gamblers in the market are winners.
14:30
In reply to this message
That is backwards.
the futarchy is powered by the Oracle.
I don't know what a "maximal bet" is.
14:33
In reply to this message
A prediction market is a market who's price can be used as an estimate of the likelihood of a future event.

A futarchy, also called a decision market, is a prediction market where we use the price to influence a decision we are making.
If you see that the price of orange juice futures are expensive next month, and so you decide to switch to Apple for the month, then the market for orange juice futures was a decision market for you.
14:34
In reply to this message
The Oracle has a futarchy type mechanism embedded in it.
If you make a false report, you are just throwing away money.
14:35
In reply to this message
Yes.
But later you would earn even more profit, as long as you were honest.
14:37
In reply to this message
To make a secure mechanism, we have to inherit a lot of tools from markets.
That is why our oracles have market mechanisms, and are futarchy related, and the decision markets also have market mechanisms and are futarchy related.

Even though both these mechanisms involve futarhy, it is important to remember that they are not the same mechanism. They are radically different.
Oracles are on-chain, and used for reporting outcomes.
Futarchy markets are off chain in the oracles, and are used for making decisions.
Deleted invited Deleted Account
Z
17:44
Zack
The typical blockchain entrepreneur strategy is to use hype to get the price up.
The price goes up because of advertising, and then falls when the product becomes available, because the product doesn't meet the expectations that were hyped up.

Assuming that blockchains are built under this strategy, the best investor strategy is to buy on the rumor of new features, and sell on the news that is has become available.

Amoveo doesn't use hype. We mostly talk about features that already exist. So, it seems like there will be some good profit making opportunities in Amoveo for investors who use alternative strategies.
EP
18:17
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
if the club website will publish the racing result, does it count as public knowledge?
Z
18:26
Zack
In reply to this message
You can bet on what the club will publish on their website, sure.
But then the website might lie.

In many cases, it is better to be less specific. If you just asked "who won the race?" then we can use that website along with other websites to try and find out who really won the race.

Every situation is unique.
SP
18:27
Stepan Panov
Hey everyone, I've set up and aim to maintain an Amoveo channel on Telegram. I'll be posting news and updates, new markets (could be useful considering there aren't that many), texts on Amoveo, prediction markets in general and maybe futarchy. Hope that'll help with spreading info about Amoveo and driving in more users.
18:28
https://t.me/amoveonews feel free to join
Z
21:34
Zack
http://139.59.144.76:8080/otc_derivatives.html
I added a bunch of links like (?) in the p2p derivatives and new_oracle parts of the light node.
21:34
Hopefully this will make it easier if people are confused about what a specific part of the interface is used for.
21:38
21:38
Every time someone attempts using the p2p derivatives, and then talks to me about it, the interface has significant improvements.
J
21:53
Jurko | Bermuda capital 📈
In reply to this message
This is great 👍
SS
23:38
Spike Spiegel
26 February 2019
Z
04:14
Zack
http://139.59.144.76:8080/new_oracle.html
Do you feel like you could figure out how to ask the oracle a question?
M
14:06
Minieep21
There could be a market for this
EA
15:39
Eric Arsenault
Z
16:37
Zack
https://github.com/zack-bitcoin/amoveo/blob/master/docs/progress_reports/augur_comparison.md
Brutal comparison between the cost of using Augur vs Amoveo.
b
16:44
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
In reply to this message
This is highly important for a project, it's basically what augur has and amoveo doesn't. They might be a fluffy talk, but people don't know any other option
16:45
In reply to this message
Matching both incentives is an art Zack
Z
16:56
Zack
There is only one kind of growth I am interested in.
The exponential kind that comes when users like a product so much, they tell their friends about it.

Until we achieve this exponential growth on some scale, I will not invest any time or energy into advertising or marketing or building a network.
16:57
When this growth starts happening, it is called "product market fit"
16:57
Most kinds of advertising before you achieve product market fit do more harm than good.
b
17:00
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
I won't disagree, but there is a big risk in ending shouting between yourself and the few guys that understand this. This is not a marketing call, it's a reality on how can you better make the exponential growth to actually happen
Z
17:00
Zack
Until we know what kind of product will achieve PMF, there are still too many unknowns. Any information we use in advertisements could quickly go out of date.
b
17:02
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
Look what an investor once told me > >
17:02
i mean future plans is what pumps up investors to invest in the first place
. like elon musk 😄 he unveils tesla semi truck awesome shiny fucking fast truck for long distance and starts picking money from customers for that amazing truck couple years before it even starts making it. just because ppl get excited about the truck
Z
17:03
Zack
If you are in a company where a little more investment can help you earn money much faster, then you do what you need to raise money.
But for us, any more investment wont make a difference in how quickly Amoveo gets developed.
b
17:03
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
I'll repeat, i'm not saying you should do something you don't want. I believe 2017 was for whitepapers, 2018 was for actually building, 2019 is for showing
Z
17:04
Zack
I have enough runway to last for years, we don't need to raise money. I am not interested in diluting my stake in Amoveo any time soon.
17:05
In entrepreneurship, you should avoid raising money if you don't need to.
b
17:05
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
It's not about investment, but about making the building look nice from outside. That doesn't need investment. It needs order. it's actually quite hard already to keep up with the tech. It's already way ahead of people, even for the ones who actually take the time to udnerstand.
17:06
In reply to this message
Agree, but i'm not talking about raising money. I'm talking about ordering the building
Z
17:07
Zack
I am not trying to scam people with a facade. I am trying to build a useful product.
b
17:07
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
I know Zack i can recognize a scam after years of internet forums/projects/people etc etc, this is not a scam.
17:07
But don't close yourself into making your product beautiful and approachable
17:08
I think there's already a lot to read on amoveo, order that into a single Amoveo 101 to make the onboarding process manageable
17:09
You will gain a lot of time, even avoiding answer stupid questions like mine from newcomers
17:16
wrong link before. Now it is fixed.
b
17:19
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
Yes i know, you are doing an excellent job Zack. please don't misunderstand what i'm telling.
EP
18:02
Evans Pan
Zack how do you define useful product? I think onboarding, user friendly, nice tutorial all are part of useful products. I have been in Amoveo for long time, but I still have no idea how to open a market. I am too stupid to use Amoveo after reading most of the Github stuff. But I can easily play around lots of eos, tron gambling sites ,placing bets, go through the process. I dont expect Amoveo to be perfect from the beginning. But I wish I can use it easily.
18:05
Please make Amoveo really useful and easy to use for ordinary Joe
Z
18:08
Zack
Yes, ease of use is important, I have been working on that every day for months.

My point is that at the current time, we don't need any investment or advertisement.
Deleted invited Deleted Account
EP
18:15
Evans Pan
Yes, I agree with you. We dont need investment. But the level of ease of use has to be tested by people like me, ordinary crypto user, not hard core developer. If Amoveo is easy enough for you to use, it is still far from enough.
18:16
to be frank, if I have to rank the usefullness of Amoveo from 10 to 0, 10 as the best, I have to rank Amoveo at below3.
b
18:17
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
Your challenge Zack is to make this machine you built easy to use for normal people like us. And we are not normal, we already start knowing what a blockchain is
18:19
Maybe it's not your job to write everything
Z
18:19
Zack
sourcex is buying $600 of stablecoin USD from me now, and I think english isn't his first language
18:20
Things are coming along quickly.
If you want to help, testing it out is very helpful.
b
18:21
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
i told you i would test this out if i understood it, it takes a master degree to start to grasp some concepts 😂
SP
18:21
Stepan Panov
In reply to this message
Can you maybe record your screen or make screenshots of every step along the way? It's the first use of stablecoins on Amoveo, I could write a little use-case article on that.
Z
18:22
Zack
buy some stablecoins from me. we can go through the steps together.
18:22
we can do it on the testnet if you don't want to use real money.
18:22
either is fine.
SP
18:23
Stepan Panov
Sounds great, if we're going there I'd love to test every feature. I'll hit you up a bit later on today if that's cool.
Z
18:24
Zack
that is fine
EP
18:24
Evans Pan
@zack I noticed IOST just introduced stable coin as well, what is the reason behind the stable coin rush for these major projects?
s
18:25
sanket
In reply to this message
👍 Appreciate the help
SP
18:27
Stepan Panov
In reply to this message
Stablecoins will most likely be the most mass-adopted type of cryptocurrencies, at least for ordinary people who want to send money abroad without having to think of crypto conversion rates, or for those who need a stable store of value for their money. It's also an essential bridge between traditional finance world and crypto-world.
EP
18:31
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
Thanks. But there are lots of pure stable coins, like usdt, pax, etc. If people just want a stable value of crypto coin to use, why do they bother to buy xxx coin, and then convert it as stable coin?
SP
18:33
Stepan Panov
In reply to this message
Stablecoins are also used by traders as an easy way to book their profits without having to withdraw crypto from exchanges.
Z
18:34
Zack
stablecoins are just one small example of people hedging risks.
Amoveo derivatives are a much more general tool that lets you hedge all sorts of risks.
T
18:57
Tromp
Can a Bolivar pegged stablecoin be created on amoveo even with 10.000.000% inflation? Would there be a counterpart ready to long the bolivar?
Z
19:00
Zack
you can make a bolivar stablecoin yes.
but you might want to use the scalar betting interface instead of the stablecoin interface, otherwise it will be wasteful. the inflation is just so high.

You would need to pay a very high premium to convince someone to hold bolivar debt.
AK
19:06
A K
can you pay someone with this stable VUSD?
19:07
or is it just a ccy forward ?
Z
19:09
Zack
If I buy a stablecoin from Alice, and I sell a stablecoin to Bob, then I can have my risk canceled out.

We could eventually do some hashlocking, which is how atomic swaps work, to move this bet from a 2-channel path to a direct 1-channel path between Alice and Bob.

This would release my money from both channels so I can use it for other things.
19:09
currently the hashlocking tool for moving a bet to a direct path does not exist, but eventually it will
19:10
the P2P derivatives tools are a big step towards achieving that goal
Deleted invited Deleted Account
19:42
Deleted Account
In reply to this message
Hello
I am the representative of P2PB2B platform, I want to "discuss" with you about the listing proposal
SS
19:44
Spike Spiegel
I've seen p2pb2b listing c20
19:47
Deleted Account
We are in rank 20 of CMC
Z
19:48
Zack
In reply to this message
I am not interested in paying you to list Amoveo.
SS
19:49
Spike Spiegel
p2pb2b is faking volume - I've observed both trading and orderbook for c20 token
SS
19:49
Spike Spiegel
it's not reasonable marketing strategy to fake your position in CMC
AK
19:50
A K
yep very suspicious
19:50
compare with upbit (bittrex) with similar reported volume on CMC: https://www.similarweb.com/website/p2pb2b.io?competitors=upbit.com
M
19:51
Minieep21
There's been an influx of fake data the past few months
19:51
So much shit on CMC exchange rankings
Z
19:53
Zack
Ive tried doing P2P derivatives with a few people, and one person is running into a kind of unique error, so I was hoping to get some advice from you guys.

The light node is served on 8080 by the full node, but the messaging server uses port 8088.
The light node in your browser needs to contact the messaging server on port 8088 to send messages, but on his computer firefox refuses to connect to 8088 saying some stuff about CORS cross-origin-request failure.
And chrome is also failing to contact 8088.

This hasn't happened to me or anyone else using this tool, so I am guessing it is some security feature or something?
C
19:55
Chris 🍞
You can't access an <iframe> with different origin using Javascript
<protocol>://<hostname>:<port>/path/to/page.html
In this case its the port?
19:56
in some cases it has to be manually enabled
Z
19:58
Zack
"Cross-Origin Request Blocked: The Same Origin Policy disallows reading the remote resource at "

https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/HTTP/CORS/Errors/CORSDidNotSucceed

looks like a network error, right?
19:59
Looks like his network had a firewall
19:59
We have it figured out now
C
20:00
Chris 🍞
thats what i said :P
Z
20:29
Zack
I sold 10 veo of stablecoins to sourcex
s
20:30
sanket
In reply to this message
Thanks zack for the help
AK
20:40
A K
@sourcex what's the benefit to you, as opposed to sellin VEO for USD on an exchange?
Z
20:41
Zack
In reply to this message
I paid a 5% premium.
20:41
so he bought 10 veo of USD stablecoins, and he gets a 0.5 veo reward for this.
AK
20:41
A K
aha
Z
20:41
Zack
the stablecoin interface makes it easy to combine a payment with the stablecoin contract.
s
20:42
sanket
In reply to this message
For me, I just wanted to try this new feature. Zack offered a 5% premium so people would be able to test.
Z
20:43
Zack
So sourcex profits as long as the price of VEO is above $28.50 in 4 weeks when the contract expires.
I profit if the price is above $60.
I
20:46
Instinct
In reply to this message
& if it's below $28.50?
Z
20:48
Zack
I get zero, and sourcex gets 20.5 veo.
20:48
which would be a loss for both of us.
AK
20:49
A K
could 28.5 and 60 be made equal in such a contract?
Z
20:50
Zack
yeah, if we both put 1 veo into the contract, and at the conclusion we each take 1 veo out.
but that would be a pretty pointless contract.
AK
20:50
A K
)
Deleted invited Deleted Account
SS
23:11
Spike Spiegel
G
23:53
Gregory
When moon?
Z
23:53
Zack
buy some derivative from me to help go to the moon
G
23:54
Gregory
Ok. Show me what uve got
Z
23:55
Zack
ill sell you USD stablecoins. I pay $1.05 of stablecoin for $1 of veo you lock in the contract
27 February 2019
G
00:00
Gregory
I hate usd. Dont use it ;) how about euro
Z
00:01
Zack
yeah, lets make an oracle for the Euro price
00:01
http://139.59.144.76:8080/new_oracle.html
I will use this page to do it
G
00:02
Gregory
Whats ur capacity
Z
00:03
Zack
ideally I will get a few more people to try it out
00:04
how about we each put in 6 veo?
and ill pay 0.3 for the contract
G
00:05
Gregory
Too small
00:05
How about 100?
Z
00:07
Zack
the current price of VEO in Euros is 49.16, is that fair?

maybe next month. lets do more testing for now.
00:09
Cox7EqAUAi6fXtxwujhXIUhXyCj+xeot3YOKUk2XnUI=
00:10
That is the oracle ID for the Euro scalar oracle to measure the price of Euro in Veo in a month.
00:13
I don't want to get my cold storage veo out.
I can put 30 veo in the contract.
00:16
Currently, I think the most valuable thing I can spend my time doing is manually on-boarding people to the p2p derivatives tools one at a time.
Each time I help someone, I learn more about what is confusing to them, and how I can make it simpler.

It is not like writing this part of the software is difficult or time-consuming, what is hard is knowing what to write to make it intuitive for people.
00:17
oh, I can pull some veo from my servers
EA
00:18
Eric Arsenault
I am writing up detailed step by step instructions, should be done with it later today
00:18
should help
Z
00:18
Zack
great. maybe we can add links from the page to a specific step of you document
EA
00:19
Eric Arsenault
yeah that would work
MF
00:26
Mr Flintstone
cool
Z
00:28
Zack
if veo retraces this 10% drop today, I will already be 15% in the profit on all these stablecoin contracts.
00:39
Today was exciting because I got someone to make a fairly large derivatives trade with me. I think the next big day will be when 2 people who aren't me make a trade like this together.
00:52
Stablecoins actually aren't a very good first application. People don't repeat using the product frequently enough.
How often people use your product is a critical factor for how quickly it can grow. Because it relates to how often people teach other people about it.

If users only return once a month, we wont be able to grow as fast as we could.

I am not sure what the path to success is, but I am fairly sure it involves a stage where we have some power users making bets on a daily frequency, or faster.
AK
00:52
A K
gambling?
00:53
but the competition if fierce )
Z
00:54
Zack
maybe.
I am a big fan of paying poor people to scan and upload textbooks.
Then the guy who has a job of scanning the books can be our power-user. He could scan multiple books in the same day.
AK
00:56
A K
truth is, however, that if we consider the top dapps
00:56
DAU is nonexistent
00:57
compared to any traditional startup
SS
00:59
Spike Spiegel
What do you think about crowdfunding work on veo?
00:59
Say I pay $10 and there is another 10 people matching the grant
Z
01:00
Zack
If it is just 1 student paying $10 for a $100 book to be uploaded, it isn't so much of a "crowd-fund", and it is very easy to keep private.
01:00
and $10 is a good daily living wage in many places.
AK
01:01
A K
aside from $10 one also needs a book though )
SS
01:01
Spike Spiegel
I would be ok to give $10 for VEO development ( content marketing, design, etc... ) but $10 is nothing and I would feel bad funding it all by myself
Z
01:02
Zack
Once we have a power user, then we can spend time responding to their needs, and optimizing the product.
MF
01:02
Mr Flintstone
while stablecoins themselves may not be super popular, long/short veo might be in general
SS
01:02
Spike Spiegel
I would be strongly against profiting from piracy
01:03
Torrenting stuff = ethically ok
Profiting from torrenting stuff = not ok
Z
01:03
Zack
As it is now, the people doing tests are only optimized through the eyes of beginners.
We want a tool that is not only quick to grasp, but can be used fluidly by a master.
01:03
In reply to this message
yeah, I agree it could get very popular, but it doesn't grow quite as fast as is possible.
01:05
In reply to this message
that depends on where you live, and your opinion on ethics.
There are self-consistent ethical arguments why information should be freely copied.
M
01:05
Minieep21
In China the culture of copying is normal. West sees it as a breach
01:06
They have Gonkai "open source" culture :D
AK
01:09
A K
In reply to this message
lol, reading right now
SS
01:10
Spike Spiegel
Anybody here willing to match my $10?
AK
01:10
A K
i feel it won't move the needle
01:10
even 1000 won't
SS
01:10
Spike Spiegel
I disagree
AK
01:10
A K
we can run a DAC or smth )
SS
01:11
Spike Spiegel
$100 weekly -> $1000 weekly -> $10k weekly = reasonable
AK
01:11
A K
spent on ... ?
SS
01:11
Spike Spiegel
best $10 idea to improve veo
AK
01:12
A K
so anyone with an idea can start a DAC
01:12
and ppl might contribute
Z
01:12
Zack
DAC is too complicated.
I think that the person who wants the book should make a P2P derivative with the person who can scan the book, and they should bet on whether the book becomes available in a certain time-frame.
SS
01:13
Spike Spiegel
I wish that somebody would create token curated registry for torrented movies / music / books
01:13
Curation is large problem because sometimes you have multiple copies of same thing with different quality
Z
01:13
Zack
so if they both already bought credits to send encrypted messages, and the book was already scanned, then the could open the channel on one block, publish the scanned book, and close the channel on the very next block. So the payment is locked only for the absolute minimum amount of time.
SS
01:26
Spike Spiegel
Paying people to torrent book isn't ethical and it's illegal and creates legal liability with very little upside
01:27
Feel free to shoot yourself in the foot
OK
01:27
O K
What about a contract to fund the publishing of recipes for expensive patented medicines?
Z
01:27
Zack
In reply to this message
that is a good idea.
01:30
Deleted Account
fund wikileaks
SS
01:31
Spike Spiegel
Even satoshi was against funding wl
Z
01:32
Zack
In reply to this message
How about recipes for expensive contraband medications?
01:32
Deleted Account
They are already to their knees in shit, taking the hit for the end users
01:32
Well I dont care much what Satoshi meant
SS
01:32
Spike Spiegel
"How about recipes for expensive contraband medications?"

They are available if you want to pay few thousand dollars ( I think ) - the problem is that you cannot sell them
01:32
Deleted Account
I think Wikileaks has proven useful to humanity
Z
01:32
Zack
I personally dislike wikileaks, and am not interested in supporting them.
Anyone else is free to reuse Amoveo tools to do that.
01:33
Deleted Account
hehe
01:33
Americans...
SS
01:33
Spike Spiegel
I love how every important freedom figher is also rapist
01:33
Like the Cody Wilson etc
01:34
If you cannot find anything on you then we will find rape case and you cannot claim that you did not and bam, jail
01:36
Deleted Account
Pehaps some kind of insurance for bad weather. Say you are going to a concert in a few weeks, but dont want to go if there is rain. So you make a derivative based on weather statistics and what is considered bad weather
SS
01:36
Spike Spiegel
There is zero chance of liquidity created for niche use-cases
01:36
Deleted Account
If you made a database tool to generate the bet, then anyone could offer these p2p
01:37
The tool would add a premium so that anyone matching abundany random bets would make money on aveeage
SS
01:37
Spike Spiegel
Liquidity attracts liquidity - it works both for exchanges and derivative settlement systems
01:37
Deleted Account
Those matching their own date and place would pay the slight premium
01:38
Anyways, its an idea that someone might use often
Z
01:38
Zack
we need to find an application that involves power users, otherwise we will grow too slowly.
01:38
Deleted Account
What defines a power user?
OK
01:38
O K
In reply to this message
I like this too. I hear public ketamine recipes are not as good as the industrial ones.
SS
01:39
Spike Spiegel
What about instructions how to create nuke
OK
01:39
O K
Nuclear power?
Z
01:39
Zack
Drug cartels probably maintain their power in part by keeping information like that secret.
If anyone can make cheap drugs, then there is less incentive to kill people over them.
SS
01:40
Spike Spiegel
And crowdfunding uranium enrichment and ICBM managed by futarchy market?

> Should we drop nuke on $CITY?
Z
01:40
Zack
nuclear technology has some heavy exportation limitations in many countries
AK
01:40
A K
In reply to this message
Drug cartels get power from prohibition . Synthesis is public knowledge
SS
01:41
Spike Spiegel
If I will ever meet libertarians I will show them Amoveo as an example of why their delusional ideas won't work - it makes me convinced that best governance is more like fasism / communism
Z
01:41
Zack
In reply to this message
yeah. so it will be funded by people who want to end the violence, and the cartels would oppose the open-sourcing of the data.
SS
01:41
Spike Spiegel
Facebook isn't a democracy by any means. Zuck has all voting power and it's just his will implemented - and shareholders don't care as long as stock is growing
Z
01:42
Zack
we can only reveal secrets about chemistry once per secret. I can't see how this would lead to power users.
01:42
uploading books could possibly lead to power users. sports gambling could lead to power users. Anything else?
SS
01:42
Spike Spiegel
What about gambling / sports betting?
OK
01:43
O K
In reply to this message
The world is full of bad people seeking power. That's why we need power structures that reward bad people seeking power to protect us. The state is a perfect system for this.
SS
01:43
Spike Spiegel
It's very popular in UK and it's regulated.
Who won the race isn't hard to know
01:43
Deleted Account
Would people gamble on other stuff, eg will a song make it to top 10...
01:43
There are many musicians out there looking for pr
01:44
bets could cause viral pr for hits
AK
01:44
A K
Well learning from Augur, which has literally 100x the hype - ppl won't
Z
01:46
Zack
In reply to this message
like dog and horse races?

I saw someone doing that before. it seems like being able to bet during the race is a big deal. If we don't support betting during the race, we don't have a chance.

So this only works with the market, not with the p2p derivatives tool.
SS
01:46
Spike Spiegel
So maybe we should close the shop and consider it failure
01:46
And write post mortem
01:47
There is very little nonspeculative use for veo to sustain very high valuation
Z
01:47
Zack
I think the markets will get popular eventually, but we should focus on p2p derivative applications first, since they work well even when there aren't many people participating
[
01:47
[Riki]
In reply to this message
Thank god
01:48
We are developing
SS
01:48
Spike Spiegel
Value created per participant * Participant count
01:49
So say $100 of value per 1249 members = ~130k
[
01:49
[Riki]
It has been almost a year since i follow veo. A lot of development has been achieved since. I think there was 60 users in this chat when i joined.
01:50
In reply to this message
If the public does not value the project the way you do, the your valuation approach is not effective, even if correct.
Z
01:50
Zack
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052715/how-big-derivatives-market.asp
Looks like the current derivatives market supports $12 trillion at a time.
If we lower the costs of using derivatives, the demand would rise. we could support a lot more than $12 trillion at a time.
SS
01:51
Spike Spiegel
So how to value veo using better metric?
@rikipedala
Z
01:51
Zack
so we are a factor of 4 million away from what the market cap would be on success.
SS
01:51
Spike Spiegel
Is price/ mcap only thing that matters or there is something more? And if it is then how to measure it?
[
01:51
[Riki]
In reply to this message
I dont think there is a unique way. There are probably various ways to derive to (not so) similar valuation outputs but inputs can be very different.
SS
01:53
Spike Spiegel
Of course there are multiple way to create valuation.
There are some ways to value an equity and there are some experimental metrics to value a cryptocurrency.

But if you want about success metrics other then price - then what they are?
01:53
Is rising price 10x a success ceteris paribus?
[
01:53
[Riki]
How about...whenever daily demand is above daily inflation, veo price will rise.
SS
01:53
Spike Spiegel
What's the source of such demand?
01:54
Willingness to use VEO as collateral for contracts / derivatives
[
01:54
[Riki]
Speculation that the coin will be used for X in future
SS
01:54
Spike Spiegel
Is there something like nonspeculative demand?
01:55
Total veo in channels ~3k usd
I don't know how much veo locked in derivatives but I think it isn't even in $100k range
Z
01:55
Zack
People pay for lawyers to enforce contracts. So having rules is worth something to them.
SS
01:55
Spike Spiegel
How much
01:56
Words mean nothing - only objective raw measures matter.

People pay for lawyers to enforce contracts

But if VEO is used to enforce only $10k worth of contracts there is no reason for even above $1M valuation
MF
01:56
Mr Flintstone
veo should be valued as the amount of money you need for initial margin for all fully funded derivatives
SS
01:57
Spike Spiegel
How to get such number?
Z
01:57
Zack
https://github.com/zack-bitcoin/amoveo/tree/master/docs/use-cases-and-ideas you can read about some applications of derivatives that people pay for here
MF
01:57
Mr Flintstone
speculation based on the future use makes the present value much higher than current use would imply
SS
01:57
Spike Spiegel
that's qualitative
MF
01:57
Mr Flintstone
present value of veo
01:57
it isn’t qualitative
SS
01:58
Spike Spiegel
how much veo is in fully funded dervatives in veo now?
01:58
simple question where only number is an answer
Z
01:58
Zack
When a small startup can show that it has exponential growth in users, or signups or whatever, then it becomes very easy for them to raise money, and the company increases in value quickly.
If you can grow exponentially when you are small, then it is likely you will be able to grow exponentially when you are big.
01:59
you need to use a channel to have any sort of contract, so the money in channels is an upper limit of the money in contracts.
SS
02:00
Spike Spiegel
What I'm asking is how much veo is used for derivatives - as it's measures real nonspeculative utility
Z
02:00
Zack
Until Amoveo shows that early exponential growth, also called product market fit, it will remain a very risky investment, and the price probably wont rise much if at all.
SS
02:00
Spike Spiegel
It's lower cap on veo valuation and we may talk about reasonable multiplier
Z
02:01
Zack
the derivatives are mostly secret. channels only tells us an upper limit. people might put money into channels to obscure the truth.
02:01
One big application of channel technology is privacy. This also means that we can't measure usage very easily.
02:02
We can't tell who is betting on what, or how much of which kind of betting is happening.
SS
02:02
Spike Spiegel
So how to measure something other then market-cap / price
02:02
KPI's / OKR / success metrics
Z
02:03
Zack
if I knew a good success metric, I would use it to earn more profit, and I wouldn't tell you because you would take my profit.
SS
02:03
Spike Spiegel
Any startup has those and execs are responsbile for reaching the goals
02:03
Lack of success metric = if you don't know if you are doing good or bad you already failed
MF
02:04
Mr Flintstone
there is like 40 veo locked in channels
02:04
atm
Z
02:04
Zack
The goal today was getting someone to participate in a bigger derivative contract.
The next goal is to get 2 people who aren't me to make a contract like this together.
MF
02:05
Mr Flintstone
p2p derivatives are hot off the press so not sure amt locked in channels is a good success metric
SS
02:05
Spike Spiegel
that's good qualitative goal
Z
02:05
Zack
Yesterday there was 0 veo locked in stablecoins, today there are 60.
SS
02:06
Spike Spiegel
I'm not suggesting any special success metric - but rather suggesting that using success metrics independent from price / mcap would allow better focus on reaching actual development goals and not just speculating on price / ponzi
Z
02:07
Zack
Today I was trying to optimize for how quickly I can teach a person to use the p2p derivatives contract.
I guess I could have set a timer to get some quantitative data out of that
02:07
some people are distracted, it is tough to see the signal through the noise
SS
02:08
Spike Spiegel
YES. that's very good way to measure UX - Steve Jobs had a goal that random person should be familiar with Mac computer in 1 hour of testing
02:08
Here is book on topic with great example: https://www.cindyalvarez.com/lean-customer-development/
Z
02:09
Zack
I am guessing I will have to walk at least a few hundred people through the p2p derivative contract before it starts being comfortable to beginners.
SS
02:09
Spike Spiegel
Objective metrics = they can be DAC'd
OK
02:09
O K
We could use a market to fund a YouTube video
SS
02:10
Spike Spiegel
👍 yup and speculate on number of views ;)
02:11
Can we move "those VEO improvement ideas" into one repository and then create market to prioritetise?
02:12
Z
02:12
Zack
There is more to it than teaching people.

When I onboard someone, the value they get from learning from me is almost zero.
What is valuable is when I get to see the process they take to figuring it out.
SS
02:16
Spike Spiegel
What about asking people who already use derivatives?
Z
02:16
Zack
some people in the Amoveo community do use derivatives for their day jobs.
SS
02:16
Spike Spiegel
Do you have source of leads for that?
OK
02:17
O K
To be fair the videos would do more than just teach people, they bring in new folks as well
SS
02:17
Spike Spiegel
How many people already using derivatives were interviewed?
Z
02:17
Zack
They share ideas sometimes sure.
Their tools are very restricted legally, and ours are restricted technologically, so we can't copy from them exactly.
SS
02:19
Spike Spiegel
"If you could wave a magic wand and be able to do anything that
you can’t do today, what would it be? Don’t worry about whether
it’s possible, just anything"
02:19
Are they saying that they dislike cenzorship wrt derivatives/
02:19
Or maybe they value liquidity / low fees more?
Z
02:20
Zack
Ive got one critical lead as a professional trader/quant type person that I talk to in depth, he understands Amoveo's design well.
Others are less memorable to me, because they make suggestions and then disappear.

Paul Sztorc has this kind of background, so I have used him as a source for this kind of info as well.
SS
02:22
Spike Spiegel
Getting out of the building is hardest startup advice - it's easy to write code and wait for users to come, and it's humiliating to go to people and hear in face that your product suck.

You don't have to do all by yourself - but I doubt that inital development / customer development may be funded by DAC.

I think VEO should have some bizdev people in team doing that
02:22
Z
02:22
Zack
Professional traders are actually the kind of person who is least likely to use Amoveo, although they do make a good source for information.

These people have already jumped through the hoops necessary to have access to some of the best financial tools in the world.

They don't have much incentive to use experimental alternatives.

I think our earlier users could be people who don't have access to good financial tools.
SS
02:22
Spike Spiegel
who is person that may use veo?
02:23
"banking the unbanked" narrative is fake
02:23
If you don't have bank account you will be unable to buy bitcoins
Z
02:23
Zack
possibly poor people with access to scanners and cheap 3rd world prints of books from universites.
OK
02:23
O K
In reply to this message
I assure you it is not fake
02:23
There are other ways to earn coins
Z
02:24
Zack
Maybe someone who works at a university bookstore in India
02:25
So the books are in English
OK
02:25
O K
Although calling it "banking" them isnt really accurate
S
02:25
Sy
not as long as everyone else in the country just accepts it as payment
SS
02:25
Spike Spiegel
I think that futarchy markets for ethical problems may attract people
02:26
To solve Is–ought problem
02:26
"Would building the wall be effective in reducing immigration"
Z
02:27
Zack
eventually that is a great application, but to scale up fast I think we need to focus on applications where we can have some power users. people making amoveo contracts once a day or more.
SS
02:27
Spike Spiegel
Outrage is internet discussion fuel - https://www.gofundme.com/TheTrumpWall
21M already crowdfunded
Z
02:27
Zack
I guess people do get outraged pretty frequently today. maybe we can ride that wave
SS
02:28
Spike Spiegel
1. "Should we implement controversial policy X"
2. Get journalists to cover it
3. Profit
02:29
For example I think that people deeply believe that rasism is ok (in US) yet they are afraid to say it because they fear political correctness
02:29
But if you can anonymously use futarchy?
S
02:30
Sy
the question here is, why would they use it to begin with?
you create the oracle is racism okay, why "waste" your money on your opinion? if it is 100 veo into yes you dont put any more on yes, if its 100 into no you will most likely not put any on yes...
SS
02:30
Spike Spiegel
Robin Hanson loves to ask such questions
S
02:31
Sy
its very different if ppl have to use their money instead of clicking yes or no
Z
02:31
Zack
how would any of the oracle reporters look up the answer to such a subjective question?
S
02:31
Sy
thats another story ^^
SS
02:31
Spike Spiegel
I think that value in subjective questions is higher then objective ones
Z
02:32
Zack
possibly, but we have to work within the bounds of what the oracle can do.
It can only provide data that is easy for any user to look up.
SS
02:32
Spike Spiegel
I would love to create "is rasism bad" oracle with yes/no only answers ( no bad question )
02:33
02:34
Such design would extract and make moral values of VEO holders visible
02:34
straightforward utility
Z
02:34
Zack
Most legal policies take too long to have significant measurable repercussions that the racist cares about.
So we would need to leave our money in the market a long time.
It just isn't a good application for making power users.
SS
02:34
Spike Spiegel
But can I create something?
02:34
Disable "bad question" option
02:34
And just ask people
Z
02:35
Zack
then it would not work as an oracle.
SS
02:36
Spike Spiegel
well, let's call it "moral engine"
02:36
Or "ask veo holders anything"
02:36
Much more interesting for me - I would be probably buying VEO just to play such game
02:37
Very effective - if decision is close to 0 and I disagree with the outcome I may put more money there
02:39
Much better then twitter pools
02:39
How to create custom oracle without "bad question" option?
02:43
Or it's bad idea?
M
02:50
Mike
In reply to this message
I've been working on this actually
02:52
Instead of looking up an "objective" answer from an oracle, you could create a game that incentivizes people to give their real opinion in a way that's difficult to vote-brigade
OK
02:59
O K
That's kind of interesting
Deleted invited Deleted Account
Z
03:07
Zack
if a thing exists, then there must be a quantitative way to measure it. Even subjective opinions.
But these kinds of markets take along time as far as I can tell. They aren't suitable for generating power users.
MF
03:09
Mr Flintstone
I think it would be very profitable for someone to offer sports betting odds on amoveo via the p2p derivatives
03:09
the casino / book already calculates the odds so that they make their 7-10% profit or whatever, so they did all the hard work
03:10
and the odds are public so you can just copy them
Z
03:10
Zack
great idea
MF
03:11
Mr Flintstone
you could also offer to let someone USD hedge their position after the event happens and before they get the money out of the contract
03:11
might get a little complicated for hedging tho
03:12
maybe it is better to figure out a way to do the ctc at any time so someone just has veo price risk for the night of the sporting event or whatever
03:14
as simple as saying that you are offering to match any odds on this website: http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/las-vegas/money/, and the other person just sends you their pubkey
03:15
you probably need a minimum bet size of around 20 dollars tho
Z
03:15
Zack
In reply to this message
we will need the anti-free-option mechanism for this, so it isn't possible with the current software
MF
03:15
Mr Flintstone
In reply to this message
yeah, that is down the line
Z
03:17
Zack
Adjusting an existing bet might not be that hard.
The channel can store 2 bets at once. and we can keep doing updates to move 1% of the veo from the first to the second until all the veo is in the second bet.
MF
03:18
Mr Flintstone
so it’s just a 1% free option which isn’t too bad
03:18
plus it’s a free option based on oracle settlement risk more than based on the event probability changing
03:19
if you look at the situation as: the event already happened and the bettor just wants to get the money out of the channel and send it to an exchange
03:19
before the oracle settles
Z
03:20
Zack
In reply to this message
oh, I misunderstood.
yeah, that is an important feature we need to get.
03:21
I was thinking if someone wanted to do dynamic adjustments to their risk portfolio
03:21
to maintain a certain risk profile
EA
03:48
Eric Arsenault
In reply to this message
👍
Z
04:54
Zack
In reply to this message
people don't care about the truth, just just want to fit in with whatever beliefs their clique has.

Anyway, futarchy shows that even if only a small fraction of the population is knowledgeable about a subject, we can still collectively make good decisions on that subject.
04:55
I do like the idea of a distributed filter for sharing entertaining content.
M
05:01
Mike
In reply to this message
Yeah. The idea is that the opportunity to profit will help people care about the truth.
05:01
In reply to this message
👍
Z
05:05
Zack
evolution programmed us to care about our clique, not the truth.
Telling people to go against their evolutionary programming is the same as telling them to harm themselves.
05:16
futarchy is a way for us to make good decisions, without risking our health with the dangers of factual knowledge.
M
05:17
Mike
In reply to this message
It’s quite a bit more nuanced than that but regardless I addressed the fact that “we don’t care about truth” pretty heavily in the article
05:19
In reply to this message
Sounds good, I’m interested in learning more and that’s why I’m here. In the meantime my article had some ideas that are relevant to the discussion of a “moral engine,” as well as potentially to the discussion of a killer app that brings in power users
EA
05:37
Eric Arsenault
Here are instructions to create a derivative using Amoveo... feel free to add comments / edits: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1V5lmk5t06HBoHnLC57zfN5fSU-AaWwTCiu7WL1qUTAo/edit
Z
06:16
Zack
My long-veo contract is already in the profit
MF
06:17
Mr Flintstone
what price source are you using
06:17
I haven’t seen the price change much today tbh
Z
06:17
Zack
hitbtc
06:18
looks like qtrade is about the same price now
06:19
their histories look pretty similar too
06:25
Deleted Account
The spread is really big, so choosing the price at any point will depend on whether the last order was buy or sell
Z
06:25
Zack
There is a good chance we will settle early based on our expectation of what the oracle will say.
06:26
If we settle early, and no one else makes a channel referencing this oracle...
Does it even matter what the oracle's outcome is?
MF
06:26
Mr Flintstone
I don’t think so
06:27
maybe the oracle will work like the VM does; only used when it’s needed
Z
06:27
Zack
its like the "a tree falls in a forest, and no one hears it" riddle
06:28
the oracle kind of does work that way. if no one makes a bet, the amount of money in it stays very small
[
07:27
[Riki]
In reply to this message
thanks. can someone add this to pin pls
M
07:34
Mike
In reply to this message
+1
07:43
Just read through the last few days—Kacper, while you raise just and legitimate concerns, I think forcing conjecture this early in a project is harmful.
EA
07:46
Eric Arsenault
In reply to this message
Looks like they are well funded too. I feel like Amoveo would benefit from a for-profit building atop it... extracting value through fees or something, and helping fuel adoption
SS
07:48
Spike Spiegel
I would say that Amoveo would benefit from selling some stake to some crypto VC in order to get expertise / exposure / creditability / legal and compliance etc...
EA
07:49
Eric Arsenault
Yeah, that’s another option
SS
07:50
Spike Spiegel
But I think that easiest thing to do would be just give money to people improving veo ( not using DAC's or even veo currently yet ) to prove that community is willing to provide money for development. then organise and scale using VEO dogfooding
EA
07:50
Eric Arsenault
If anyone is interested in that kind of thing, ping me
07:51
Yeah, but where would funds come from
07:51
Just random donors in community?
07:51
, Zack
SS
07:52
Spike Spiegel
1. My altruism
2. pang of conscience from people who got early and are willing to contribute
3. DAC's
07:53
1. $10
2. $100
3. $1000+
[
07:53
[Riki]
% of block reward could go to a dev address #futarchy
EA
07:53
Eric Arsenault
Lol
07:54
Yup sorry that wasn’t a laugh
07:54
How does community decide what gets built? Also through futarchy?
[
07:54
[Riki]
through zack 😄
07:55
i think zack has a roadmap and thats fine
SS
08:02
Spike Spiegel
I think that Zack's founders reward is his private money and it's his money entirely - but IHMO it would be reasonable to have some funds given to foundation
08:02
in addition to dedicated founder's reward
08:02
Exactly the same way as Zcash
EA
08:03
Eric Arsenault
I still think there is a difference between a funded team, with many people playing vastly different roles (marketing, sales, product, tech, etc), who strategize around go-to-market and a decentralized project with none of that structure.
SS
08:05
Spike Spiegel
Also usually people work as contractors or salaried - who will be willing to try getting funded from DAC's instead of stable / predictable salary from any other company?
08:06
Also for product market fit https://defipulse.com/
08:06
Maker / Compound / Uniswap / Lightning Network = only 4 projects with $1M+ "market git"
EA
08:07
Eric Arsenault
Thanks, been looking for that
08:09
Say for example, the ideal product for the market was textbooks, scanned from India. The execution of that would require sales team, marketing, customer service, etc.
SS
08:10
Spike Spiegel
And LEGAL team ;0
Deleted invited Deleted Account
Deleted invited Deleted Account
Z
13:39
Zack
We need to find some power users and work with them to improve amoveo.

Merely making amoveo usable to beginners is not enough.
We need to make it comfortable for someone who uses it a lot.
Crypto Genius invited Crypto Genius
Z
16:07
Zack
In reply to this message
Clearly you haven't used the pirate Bay before.
Z
16:39
Zack
Out of a total of 60k veo, 1354 are on qtrade and 292 are on hitbtc.
That means for every 40 veo, more than one is on these exchanges.

If you don't hold the private key, then it is not your money. Be careful, the majority of exchanges eventually do lose the money at least once.
T
16:44
Tromp
That is actually low and good i think
16:44
Or is it too much on exchanges?
16:44
Well those arent the best exchanges to trust
16:45
If we get binance or bittrex those are more confidence worthy given their track record
Z
16:45
Zack
I am hoping to get to the point where you can buy stable-btc on amoveo, then atomic-swap those for btc on bitcoin using the lightning network.
T
16:47
Tromp
Jesus hahaahha mind blowing stuff
Z
16:47
Zack
So new users to Amoveo would show up originally holding stable-bitcoin. and they would have to either sell that contract, or wait for it to expire to be able to use their VEO.
T
16:48
Tromp
Any idea how we could get on ledger wallet?
16:48
That would make things way easier
16:49
Holding paper private keys sucks
Z
16:50
Zack
instead of paper wallets, it would be better to memorize the password to encryption, and store your encrypted private keys safely online in multiple locations.
16:50
The light node has an encryption tool. it works even if you don't have any veo.
b
16:50
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
I don't trust my head that much 😂
Z
16:50
Zack
you can use a memorized password to generate an amoveo address, and send encrypted messages to that address.
16:58
I thought someone did already make software so that a hardware wallet would be compatible.
T
17:22
Tromp
Yeah i remember that, dont remember who it was
M
19:50
Minieep21
Amoveo.io guys did it if I'm not mistaken
DV
20:03
Denis Voskvitsov
yep. and it'll be available on https://myveowallet.com as soon as we pass review in LedgerHQ.
T
20:44
Tromp
Great thanks 👍🏻
SP
23:30
Stepan Panov
What language is Amoveo written in?
23:31
Deleted Account
Erlang.
SP
23:31
Stepan Panov
Thanks
28 February 2019
04:11
Deleted Account
04:11
Please dry-run before comitting big $ to this
04:12
There were questions about hardware wallets and such, bringing the blog post back from the dead
Z
04:29
Zack
In reply to this message
This looks like it does not work.
the instructions say to put all 3 secrets into a shasum?
But you only have 2 of the 3, so how could that work?
Z
05:27
Zack
I added some stuff to otc_finisher.html
Now you can end the contract earlier than the oracle finalizes, as long as you both agree on what the final state should be. http://139.59.144.76:8080/otc_finisher.html

This allows a lot of cool stuff.
For example, I could make an oracle in block N asking if a book will get published. I can make a channel with someone willing to scan the book in block N. They can publish the book during block N, and then we can agree to close the channel at block N+1, because we both agree how the oracle will resolve now that the book exists.
So now we only have to lock up VEO for a minimum of 1 block to do some kinds of contracts.

Yesterday this minimum was over a week, so this is a significant improvement. Especially in that it will make it easier for power users to exist. It is possible to use the same veo to make and finish many contracts in the same day.

Mr Flinstone realized how important this feature would be, it was his idea.
I
05:33
Instinct
🔥🔥
Deleted invited Deleted Account
Z
07:30
Zack
Now that we can close end bets so fast, sports betting could work better.
If we sign every move we make while playing go, all that signed data could be made available to the people reporting to the oracle.

I want to be able to gamble on my go games.
07:36
signing every move and providing it all to the oracle reporters is a lot simpler than re-programming the rules of go into chalang.

I think the only hard part would be to enforce how long you can think before you have to move.
07:39
Maybe we should just ask the oracle to look up who the server says won.
That way it is like a centralized gambling server, but the server doesn't have to take on the risk of holding any customer's money.
M
11:40
Minieep21
Does anyone have the exact date the block size reduced the first time?
M
12:06
Minieep21
In reply to this message
Was this the correct block reward?
12:36
then lookup a block one after the oracle close to see the new reward
12:37
0-3044 Value: 1.00227592
3045-5141 Value: 1.57546925
5142-35906 Value: 1.00227592
35907-54740 Value: 0.64139933
54741+ Value: 0.40461210
12:42
ah i could have done that easier xD
12:42
12:43
hmm but its missing the step back around 5k since the value is unchanged
12:43
xD
12:43
ah well, there you have it @malk_trade
M
12:45
Minieep21
Thank you very much ❤️
Deleted invited Deleted Account
M
14:13
Minieep21
Hmm...
EA
14:20
Eric Arsenault
In reply to this message
this is awesome
Z
15:56
Zack
In reply to this message
Torrenting and paying people to upload books is legal in most of the world.
15:57
If you live somewhere where this is not legal, then don't do it.
SS
16:05
Spike Spiegel
Then why there are no companies offering such service in any country?
One cannot hide from IP/copyright lobby and piratebay hacktivists paid the price for their contribution
16:06
". Put differently, developers of OpenOffice should not be held liable if someone uses it to draft a ransom note; on the other hand, a developer clearly designing for illicit use, like releasing a tool called “OpenPassportForger,” would have a comparatively harder time arguing he or she did not intend it to be used to break the law. "
Z
16:12
Zack
In reply to this message
I only got early payout working for oracles in the last 24 hours. Not enough time for new companies to open. The tech is too new.
16:14
Weren't the pirate Bay people who got in trouble in Sweden? That is one of the few countries where torrenting is often illegal.
Z
17:23
Zack
https://medium.com/sunrise-over-the-merkle-trees/the-three-powers-of-augur-7e5aa476d0c5

Articles like this aren't really about a specific prediction market, they just talk about the benefits of them in general.

We could switch out the word "augur" for "amoveo", add a few links to our documentation, and republish it.

There are teams spending a lot of money writing these articles, and it is so easy to repurpose them for Amoveo.
SS
17:38
Spike Spiegel
Yup - "A very careless plagiarist takes someone else’s work and copies it verbatim: “The mitochondria is the powerhouse of the cell”. A more careful plagiarist takes the work and changes a few words around: “The mitochondria is the energy dynamo of the cell”. A plagiarist who is more careful still changes the entire sentence structure: “In cells, mitochondria are the energy dynamos”. The most careful plagiarists change everything except the underlying concept, which they grasp at so deep a level that they can put it in whatever words they want – at which point it is no longer called plagiarism."
Z
17:40
Zack
If you reference the original author and document as a source, then it isn't plagerism. At least, that is how it works in USA.
b
17:45
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
In reply to this message
Well basically what Zack said is that.
Lets grasp the concept on how they are communicating because they are paying a lot of money to do it.

Why they communicate what they communicate like this
Z
17:45
Zack
Anyway "plagiarism" isn't illegal. It is just bad to do in academia, because you ruin your reputation.
SS
17:52
Spike Spiegel
Who should be in charge of communication strategy?
Z
17:56
Zack
each person should be in charge of their own communications.
SS
17:58
Spike Spiegel
Cannot people organise in voluntary association in order to reach their goals?
Z
17:59
Zack
feel free to ask the prediction market what you should write in your blog
SS
18:00
Spike Spiegel
My blog is my business
Z
18:00
Zack
exactly
T
18:01
Tromp
We need a ceo to apply into an exchange like binance for example. Who wants to be CEO? 🍺
SS
18:01
Spike Spiegel
But I'm buying Veo in order to get people to actually develop it - and developing it includes marketing and communication strategy
Z
18:02
Zack
In reply to this message
Can it be a cat? I can't respect a human as a leader.
SS
18:02
Spike Spiegel
In other words: I think VEO price would increase if there would be an actual team working on specifically customer discovery / getting people to try / collecting feedback
T
18:02
Tromp
In reply to this message
😂
18:02
In reply to this message
True
SS
18:02
Spike Spiegel
Obviously bitcoin or Grin don't have any founder's reward so it's fair that nobody is paid to do anything
18:03
But if only one person is getting founders reward it's discouraging people from working on veo for free
18:03
That's why you will have more people interested in Veil / Augur / etc..
18:05
It's the freerider problem described by Naval - why fund development if you can just passively hold coins? As if price of a coin would increase both people who participate and people who just hold get the same increase
18:06
Bitcoin developers have skin in the game - in order to get paid they need to buy bitcoin first
Z
18:06
Zack
Throwing money at the problem of development doesn't bring us nearer to a solution, it often causes more problems than solutions.
You sure have a lot of opinions for someone who hasn't contributed anything to Amoveo.
AK
18:06
Alexey Kanakhin
In reply to this message
I think you may create an oracle to decrease founder reward and give a small part of it to another person/wallet. Am I right, Zack ?
Z
18:08
Zack
In reply to this message
the founder reward is a governance variable, the community can turn it up or down at any time.

Giving someone else a founder reward would require a hard update.

The goal is to transition from founder-reward type development to dominant assurance contract type development over time
SS
18:09
Spike Spiegel
I think there is very low chance of getting anything created via DAC funding
18:11
"You sure have a lot of opinions for someone who hasn't contributed anything to Amoveo."

Why should I work for free when others are getting paid for this?
Z
18:12
Zack
In reply to this message
This is contradictory with your previously expressed opinion that paying people to upload books would get us into legal trouble.
Lately you have been seeming like a troll.
18:14
I don't remember your english being this good.
Maybe the real Kacper left, so someone else copied his photo
b
18:15
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
In reply to this message
😂😂😂
SS
18:19
Spike Spiegel
Well...

I'm genuinely interested in improving veo - providing value in order to increase the value of a coins.

Is this trolling?
18:20
You are pointing out that there are multiple articles about Augur and they are getting lot's of free coverage in media while almost nobody heard about amoveo.
18:23
18:23
I'm looking at this chart - it seems that there was one hype bubble and on-chain activity is decreasing
18:24
Development alone cannot bring users without marketing / communication strategy - and yet asking about it or suggesting hiring somebody to do this is trolling
Z
18:24
Zack
In reply to this message
I proposed a solid strategy anyone in the community could do to quickly make high quality content about Amoveo and prediction markets.

There is a big difference between constructive criticism, and talking shit about someone you don't like.
You stopped giving constructive criticism, and lately you just talk shit.
SS
18:26
Spike Spiegel
I think I was able to convince people to lower miner's reward - that's was low hanging fruit - if price will start to raise it will be valuable to use profits from increased price to fund DAC's - if price will spiral downward no amount of development work will save Veo
18:26
Why Aeternity has higher mcap then veo while being much worse product?
Z
18:28
Zack
In reply to this message
I believe it is best to keep the market cap as small as possible before product market fit.

If Aeternity and Amoveo both fail to reach product market fit, then AE would have wasted a lot more resources.
18:28
I don't want to sell a dream, I want to build a product.
18:30
Until product market fit, it is all speculation.
Price doesn't tell you almost anything.
SS
18:30
Spike Spiegel
For me core Veo product is using this strategy:
1. Create stable and slowly growing base currency with low volatility in order to make it "money"
2. Fund various DAC's that are creating public goods & increasing VEO price
3. Build derivative markets for things where there would be an actual demand for those
18:33
If you can create a currency that will have low volatility and will be slowly increasing ( as commodities do wrt dollar price ~ few percent a year maybe )
Then it will allow for basically unlimited funding for DAC's
18:34
~2% of ETH is locked in order to create ETH based stablecoin - ~$73 080 worth of veo should be locked for getting the same ratio
Z
18:35
Zack
starbucks gift cards aren't valuable until there is a place you can get coffee.
VEO wont be valuable until there is a place you can make financial contracts that people want to participate in.

Use-cases create valuable currency, valuable currency does not create use-cases.
SS
18:38
Spike Spiegel
Fact that you can use currency X to pay for something isn't providing value for such currency - MV = PT

You can have almost infinite velocity of money
18:38
Locking value as collateral in smart contracts is legit way - as ETH cannot have mcap lower then stablecoins on eth
18:39
Do bitibu have issues with VEO? My deposit is not credited for a second day now, support doesnt reply, is it time to say bye bye to my money?
SS
18:40
Spike Spiegel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_sink

Adding sink to the economy creates real value as well - for example MKR tokens are burned and value from the network provided is extracted by MKR holders
18:42
ZRX token is used to pay relayers in their ecosystem - it's widely used yet there is no flow of value to ZRX holders
B
18:43
Ben
@sherzodimit i never ussed bitibu, nor do i know that exchange... use qtrade.io or a1 these have been around since the early days of veo
SS
18:43
Spike Spiegel
Either the coin is SoV ( store of value ) or more like equity
18:45
is bitcoin any more valuable because you can pay in bitcoin for your coffee?
18:45
Or maybe it's valuable because it's Schelling point for value?
18:50
Z
18:50
Zack
Maybe we should go for e-gaming next.
P2P bets can settle immediately when the game ends.
If both gamblers already have credits, they can make a bet together instantly.

Is anyone here involved in a community that gambles on livestreaming of videogames?
C
18:51
Chris 🍞
would be cool if you made something like tronbet for Amoveo
Z
18:52
Zack
In reply to this message
I don't know about tron. What key features make this tool useful to you?
C
18:52
Chris 🍞
its a betting platform with dice and such simple games
Z
18:52
Zack
oh, is that like satoshi dict? like a slot machine?
SS
18:53
Spike Spiegel
What about copying ZRX way - https://0x.org/
Just saying that you create protocol for prediction markets / any risk possible and just provide services to people trying to build biz on top of veo?
Z
18:53
Zack
i programmed a dice program like that in chalang before. I could set it up again.
I think we can make the interface a lot more comfortable this time.
18:53
Deleted Account
That sounds like a nice demo.
SS
18:53
Spike Spiegel
I would be very happy to play with veodice
18:54
Deleted Account
You have to draw users in with simple examples and tools.
18:54
Veo does a lot of innovative things, but thus users will be unfamiliar with it.
SS
18:54
Spike Spiegel
Dice doesn't require two users
18:55
It's single player game
Z
18:55
Zack
I am thinking for games like dice, it is better if you can keep using the money in the same channel over and over to play different gambling type games.

but how about this: https://www.gambling.com/news/live-streaming-becoming-a-huge-part-of-online-betting-753800
SS
18:55
Spike Spiegel
Yes - creating multiple open source example of how to do X in VEO would be best. Ie tutorials for that
18:56
And then maybe some hackathon
Z
18:56
Zack
Amoveo's oracle can link up to any stream that is being recorded so it will be available to the oracle reporters later
C
18:56
Chris 🍞
In reply to this message
nice
18:56
In reply to this message
Vice 😆
Z
18:57
Zack
I think instead of writing some dice interface, I want to find some people who will use amoveo to gamble on a livestream
C
18:58
Chris 🍞
I'm not sure that you'll find streamwatchers here. atleast i'm not one of those people. way to busy with Crypto
Z
18:58
Zack
https://github.com/zack-bitcoin/chalang/blob/master/src/lisp/dice.scm looks like I wrote it for the lisp to chalang compiler
19:00
I bet there are a lot of small-time streamers who want to allow gambling, but the laws make it difficult, so there is no easy method for the users.

Those live streamers might be willing to mention Amoveo during their stream, since making it easier for customers to gamble will make their stream more valuable.
C
19:02
Chris 🍞
yeah your probably right
T
19:02
Tromp
In reply to this message
I think valuable currency attracts attention and users for the use cases. Big mkt cap is the best marketing in crypto right now. But we need a good product first
19:05
Deleted Account
In reply to this message
Chicken and egg problem. Although I don't think there is anything wrong with speculation.
T
19:06
Tromp
In reply to this message
Speculation is good
19:07
Projects with higher mkt cap are the ones that scream the loudest (tron and shit). If we can have a great product then we need to make some noise so people pay attention
19:07
But Amoveo is not user friendly right now
19:08
A retarded squirrel has to be able to use some projects on it for it to have an impact on a large scale
Z
19:09
Zack
@guideltoshi have you tried out the P2P derivatives program?
It is getting very usable.
19:09
Deleted Account
It is usable for power users. Not for average joes.
19:09
They want shiny and simple stuff.
19:10
Something like Veil gets close I think.
19:10
But if we are marketing to power users, good enough.
Z
19:11
Zack
@hTilian you have tried making a P2P derivative?
We should do one together
19:11
It is getting better every day
19:12
Deleted Account
I played around with it a few days ago, and I'm open to that - sure.
19:12
I will send you a message once I get home from work, so we can test some more.
Z
19:13
Zack
I added you to the group where we are doing this stuff
19:13
Deleted Account
Thank you!
T
19:14
Tromp
In reply to this message
I can try it out if there is a simple step by step guide
19:15
It would be fun to create a bolivar stable coin if anyone is willing to go long the bolivar 😂
19:15
In reply to this message
Thanks for the reply, I hope I can get my funds at the end of the day
Z
19:16
Zack
In reply to this message
I think Eric made a guide recently.
But instead, it is best to do the bet with me, and we can talk your way through it. This way I can learn about your experience and make improvements.
T
19:17
Tromp
In reply to this message
Okk
Z
19:17
Zack
I added you to the group, tell me when you are ready to make some bolivar derivatives
19:18
oh wait, I think it is internationally illegal for me to invest in bolivar securities
T
19:19
Tromp
That sucks haha
Deleted invited Deleted Account
Pedro invited Pedro
Z
21:11
Zack
I sold Tromp 0.2 VEO of USD stablecoins
21:13
Every time I walk through this process with someone, I learn more about how to improve the P2P derivatives tool.
21:25
on KGS, a popular go server I have used, you can see the full game history of any of the other players.
So KGS would work perfectly for gambling with Amoveo!

go is an ancient board game.
21:26
Anyone can log on as a guest and see all the history, you don't have to make an account. So it isn't difficult for oracle reporters.
SS
21:30
Spike Spiegel
Huh - cenzorship resistant expensive chat?
22:50
what moats amoveo have?
1 March 2019
Z
01:00
Zack
I have been heavily influenced with a Californian startup type of business philosophy, it goes like this:
It is really hard to make something useful.
If you are focused on anything else, you will fail.
But if you can succeed at making something useful, then everything else will be easy.

I think that moats is not a good thing to prioritize at this stage of Amoveo's development.

But we do have the moat of ownership of veo.
b
01:01
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
I agree and disagree Zack , I have built soft and non soft businesses. While i agree a lot on lean development and california startup world I think crypto has moved the nodes a lot
Z
01:01
Zack
If we dont have users, and we build a moat, it is like a moat around emptiness. Then if the users end up working somewhere else, we will have wasted so much time building the moat in the wrong spot.
01:02
we need at least a few hundred regular users before we can begin to think about something like a moat
01:04
Warren Buffet isn't a startup investor. You can't use his strategy in this kind of business.
b
01:05
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
I'm not speaking of warren, he stays away from startups and he has a concrete reason
01:05
Startups depend on a few people, like blockchain, you take out those people and the startup dies
01:06
When we speak about resistance and decentralization we fail big when we realize that most projects depend on a really few people.
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GJ
02:37
Guillermo Joya
Hey guys and gals. What’s happening with ya ?
T
03:14
Tromp
Everything good 🍺
SS
03:57
Spike Spiegel
03:59
04:01
He lists Amoveo as potential solution
Deleted invited Deleted Account
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EA
07:25
Eric Arsenault
In reply to this message
This makes sense. Until then, Amoveo’s community and brand are probably closest thing to a moat.
EP
08:55
Evans Pan
@zack per your recent efforts, amoveo is moving towards decentralized finance/opem finance sector?
08:55
Its similar to what ETH want to be
08:56
after eth failed in ico and dapp
08:57
Amoveo have stable coin, p2p derivatives, prediction market already.
MF
08:59
Mr Flintstone
it kind of has them, more like has the capability to do without trust. we need liquidity to actually have them
08:59
though I guess zack is willing to sell anyone a stablecoin atm
EP
08:59
Evans Pan
so REP is not in the same range as veo anymore. veo is catching up what eth is doing.
Z
09:00
Zack
Amoveo is for enforcing financial derivative type contracts between pairs of people who make channels in the lightning network.
EP
09:02
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
Yes, market call this DeFi.
09:02
it will be much easier for new comer to understand what veo is.
Z
09:03
Zack
Amoveo doesn't use subcurrencies. Everything is priced in VEO.
EP
09:04
Evans Pan
yes, I agree. But thats still Defi. And most of people they already understand what DeFi is, I dont need spend half an hour to explain what amoveo is anymore.
09:07
Veo, a DeFi platform with its own native currency.
Z
09:20
Zack
Hard update idea.
Another tx that does nearly the same thing as new_channel_tx, but the hash of a contract state is embedded into it, and the second person to sign the tx also needs to provide a signature over this contract state.

This way channel formation can be anyone-can-spend.
If I want to buy stablecoins, I can publish the contract and new_channel tx somewhere public. Then anyone can accept my contract and buy stablecoins while I am offline.

This way you don't have to deal with people reneging on their offers to trade.
You can tell a trade offer is valid by looking to see if the tx is valid.

We can combine this with n-lock-time, that way the txs expire and become invalid, that way we don't in-inadvertently incentivize people to move money between accounts too frequently as a hack to make old txs invalid.
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EA
12:53
Eric Arsenault
In reply to this message
Love the idea of creating contact that anyone can accept
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CD
16:27
Crypt Dweller
I was listening to the Epicenter Bitcoin interview with Robin Hanson and in discussing why futarchy markets have failed to gain traction, he said one of the biggest missteps he made was to overestimate the pool of people who are enthused about using futurachy -- the reality that most employees and managers would prefer to maintain appearances and convenient illusions rather than use PMs to discover economic truths about their organization that might make them look bad. But obviously PMs have a tremendous potential value for organizations to use internally in achieving greater efficiency. Zack, as you are searching for a product market fit right now, have you considered offering Amoveo's mechanism for futarchy to companies and specifically as a governance tool for other cryptocurrency startups/communities to use? It seems that of all people they would have the most familiarity and openess to using it.
Z
16:29
Zack
In reply to this message
we have been using Amoveo futarchy to make decisions for Amoveo.
Trying to help other companies do the same would be a good idea.
CD
16:31
Crypt Dweller
of course, it is best to prove the value of futarchy within Amoveo first before pitching it as this great new governance tool to other people
Z
16:32
Zack
https://github.com/zack-bitcoin/amoveo/blob/master/docs/basics/using_governance.md

Ideally we would have a normal conditional market tool for futarchy instead of using this hack
CD
16:32
Crypt Dweller
i will look into it
16:32
have you talked with robin hanson before?
Z
16:32
Zack
sure, I met Robin when I worked at Augur
CD
16:33
Crypt Dweller
It seems he would have a wealth of experience for Amoveo to learn from
Z
16:33
Zack
He has always been dismissive of blockchain technology. He told me to start a centralized company like intrade.
CD
16:33
Crypt Dweller
in terms of pitfalls to avoid and promising ideas for market fit
16:33
yeah
T
16:33
The Ancients
zack
16:33
when u gonna pump it
16:33
pump it already noob
CD
16:33
Crypt Dweller
that
16:33
that is curious to me that such a person would be dismissive of blockchains
16:34
but i don't know his background, other than that's he libertarian
Z
16:35
Zack
His background is mostly economics, with some physics.
He did a lot of research into prediction markets, creating the foundation of knowledge that makes things like futarchy possible.
16:35
I read "Elephant in the Brain" recently based on his recommendation, it was excellent.
CD
16:37
Crypt Dweller
Neat, thanks for passing the recommendation along
Z
16:37
Zack
http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/biashelp.pdf
Here is some research he did that was important when designing Amoveo
16:38
part of the basis of why we can use futarchy as a consensus mechanism
CD
16:38
Crypt Dweller
Great, I will read that.
T
16:39
The Ancients
PUMP MEEEEE
16:40
no idea if we're ever gonna pump since amoveo's whole primary objective is based on vendetta against augur
16:41
anti-social neet developer zack only goal is too watch augur burn even if it means destroying his own projects
CD
16:42
Crypt Dweller
dude, why are you shitposting here
T
16:42
The Ancients
cause its lowkey the truth
CD
16:42
Crypt Dweller
Amoveo telegram is maybe the only one i've found with substantive discussion
16:43
if you think zack's goals are limited to petty grievances you are severely misunderstanding the project and should not be holding any VEO or wasting your time in this chat
T
16:43
The Ancients
He talks about governance and futarchy on his Amoveo platform, but soon as someone challenged it by trying to reduce dev revwards
16:43
he wanted to fork
16:43
lol
16:43
tell em about it zacky
Z
16:44
Zack
Ive been working on prediction markets since before Joey or Jack.
16:44
Forking is part of Amoveo's oracle mechanism.
T
16:44
The Ancients
i think even one of his loyal followers called him out on it and he just ignored it over on discord
CD
16:45
Crypt Dweller
i don't really care
16:45
20% reward isn't wrong to me
Z
16:45
Zack
16.6%
CD
16:45
Crypt Dweller
correct
T
16:45
The Ancients
CD
16:45
Crypt Dweller
but if you are so concerned piglet, just sell your VEO
T
16:45
The Ancients
Someone tried to change it and he threaten forking
CD
16:45
Crypt Dweller
who cares, move one
T
16:45
The Ancients
cause he didn't want to lose his muni
16:45
lol
16:45
meaning he will still controle verything
16:46
and those as he fits like a dictator
CD
16:46
Crypt Dweller
Ok. His decision makes sense.
T
16:46
The Ancients
whats the point of a governance when he controls it?
16:46
🤔
Z
16:47
Zack
Amoveo uses futarchy governance. So it is not possible for someone to force the outcome, even if they are willing to spend lots of money controlling it. Even if they have more than 50% of the VEO.
16:47
Another benefit of futarchy is that we are able to make good decisions, even if the majority of users can't tell the difference between a good or bad decision.
16:49
If it was better for Amoveo to pay me less, then futarchy would make the decision to pay me less.
Since that has not happened, it would seem that paying me this much is more optimal than paying me less.
16:51
Gnosis ended up keeping around 90% of the tokens as a development reward.
Augur kept around 17% like Amoveo did.

So it seems like Amoveo's 16.6% is actually on the low side, as far as blockchain prediction markets go.
17:02
Looks like AE kept 17% as well
CD
17:08
Crypt Dweller
@pigletstyle the way i see it, amoveo is nowhere close to being able to survive without Zack's involvement. If his involvement is conditional upon a fairly standard dev reward, then i support it. If you and the community wished to erase the dev reward, and zack made his own fork, then you could continue developing your version of VEO and those who trust Zack's skills will follow his. So go ahead and make the oracle if you wish.
Z
17:10
Zack
Augur/AE/Gnosis have fixed unchangable dev rewards. Only Amoveo believes enough in prediction markets to give futarchy control over the dev reward.
Deleted invited Deleted Account
Z
19:00
Zack
http://139.59.144.76:8080/lookup.html I made a tool so you can look up how much money is in a channel.
19:03
fMU1uaBpWrHpNs7CtR87K6Celt1U9kLTW8v8YCrvIo0=
Here is a channel id of a channel that you can lookup
Z
19:22
Zack
https://github.com/zack-bitcoin/amoveo/issues/231
I set up an issue to organize discussions about this hard update.
I think that I figured out how to make these channels formation txs act like limit orders! This should make the prices that contracts get matched at much better, and increase liquidity in the markets.
s
19:47
sanket
In reply to this message
This can be really helpful. People generally fomo seeing others participate in an activity
20:07
Deleted Account
In reply to this message
Very clever. Using miner incentive is great.
MF
20:16
Mr Flintstone
very cool solution
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M
23:59
MKUltra
Wonderful...
2 March 2019
M
00:00
Mike
Lol. They also do POA, RootStock, Ethereum Classic, XDAI, and more are coming. If Amoveo is a good fit for a project that needs increased usability, I could convince them it’s a good blockchain to work with in the future
Z
00:02
Zack
More light node tools sounds good
00:02
I am not looking to hire anyone.
00:02
or pay for anything.
M
00:04
Mike
I’ll think about it.
MF
00:04
Mr Flintstone
light node tools would be great
00:05
maybe they would be receptive to getting paid the amoveo way
00:05
or trying it out
Z
00:06
Zack
we could set up a dominant assurance contract, so the community can raise funds for the upgrade.
Each person is incentivized to contribute in proportion to how much they believe the upgrade will benefit them.
MF
00:06
Mr Flintstone
yeah
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SS
03:27
Spike Spiegel
https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/issues/1559 - should amoveo add similar feature? "minimal per tx fee which is burned"
MF
03:37
Mr Flintstone
already in amoveo
03:37
basically the entire “tx fee” is burned iirc
03:38
I think I did the math once and it was like a full block of tx would actually burn more veo than the reward from that block
03:38
especially now w/ lower reward
Deleted invited Deleted Account
T
04:01
Tromp
Why so many new people?
SS
04:04
Spike Spiegel
w8, tx fee isn't going to?
04:05
Big if true = meaning that VEO mcap would be correlated with tx processing ability and network utility
MF
04:09
Mr Flintstone
if blocks are full you can pay more to miners to get in, just like btc
04:10
currently the fee that is applied is burned and not paid to miners
04:11
Deleted Account
Is there a determined maximum supply for the VEO?
MF
04:12
Mr Flintstone
no
04:18
though our block reward change behavior if continued does converge on a finite total supply, no guarantee it will continue
04:18
Deleted Account
Ok and what average annual VEOs are released?
04:19
I mean mined :)
MF
04:19
Mr Flintstone
with current emission like 25k a year
04:19
but that is subject to change
04:19
Deleted Account
In reply to this message
In lower or higher?
MF
04:20
Mr Flintstone
either way
04:20
Deleted Account
Ok thanks for your answers
Z
04:34
Zack
In reply to this message
Each tx has a burned fee that gets burned, and a miners fee to pay the miners.
Currently almost 100% of the fee is being burned.
EP
05:38
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
but do you know how many people working on their projects to share the 17%
05:39
If Amove has a established team working together, 16.6% is fair enough.
Z
05:40
Zack
17% of a billion is a lot more than 17% of 3 million.

When amoveo is a billion, I bet the dev reward will have been lowered a lot.
EP
05:44
Evans Pan
At this stage, amoveo should not be one man team anymore. You always said you want to have users first, but users are not coming for free. there is sth called acquisition cost, either you spend money on marketing , or on UI or on anything else to onboarding users.
05:44
now you are purly waiting for users coming by themselves, thats not sensible.
Z
05:45
Zack
In reply to this message
All the development is open source. You can see I am not sitting around waiting.
EP
05:45
Evans Pan
I know you are busy. Thats why Amoveo need a team.
Z
05:46
Zack
I built amoveo because I hate hierarchy.
I never want to be an employer or employee again.

Instead, we should use non-hierarcical decentralized mechanisms, like dominant assurance contracts and futarchy.
C
05:48
Chris 🍞
In reply to this message
👏👏👏
05:48
Never worked a day in my life for "the man"
stick it to the "man"
EP
05:48
Evans Pan
yes, you can do it. Please use the dev rewards to oepn an oracle to ask someone to devolep sth for amoveo. then you are not employing anyone.
05:50
I fully agree with you we should use non-herarical decentralized method to do it, but please you start it.
Z
05:50
Zack
I tried recently to raise funds for that Moroccan guy who wanted to translate for Arabic.
It didn't work that time, but we will keep trying until it does
EP
05:51
Evans Pan
raise funds for developing amoveo?? miners has paid dev funds to you.
Z
05:53
Zack
If I paid someone out of my own pocket, that would be hierarchical employment.

Instead we should use decentralized methods of raising funds for public goods. Like a dominant assurance contract.
EP
05:54
Evans Pan
if you can clarify if the current 16.6% dev rewards is supposed to be your personal rewards, or its supposed to use for the development of Amoveo as a whole, including you and anyone else who contributes to Amove.
Z
05:54
Zack
It is my personal money. I have no obligations.
EP
05:55
Evans Pan
ok. thats clear now
MF
05:56
Mr Flintstone
I’m pretty sure zack has said this since genesis
05:56
at least that’s what I remember
EP
05:56
Evans Pan
so next time please dont compare Amove dev rewards to other projects, as other projects dev rewards are for the team and for the project, not for one person.
Z
05:57
Zack
If you pay a salary, it becomes personal property.
You think the augur devs are required to donate their paycheck to other augur devs?
EP
05:58
Evans Pan
no, but I think dev salary is only part of the dev rewards.
Z
05:59
Zack
All the money eventually becomes someone's salary.
05:59
Just like in amoveo.
EP
05:59
Evans Pan
how come
05:59
dev rewards are used for various purposes.
Z
05:59
Zack
You can only spend money once. Then it becomes someone else's money.
05:59
Once you pay a developer, that part of the money is gone.
EP
05:59
Evans Pan
if someone do the work.
06:03
How Amoveo will be developed is a big uncertainty because the ill-designed dev rewards. If you do want to get 16.6% rewards as salary, and nothing to spare to any other developments, I call the community to think about change the dev rewards to 20%, and so we can use the 4% rewards to do sth else Zack has no sense how to do but essential to the success of Amoveo.
06:06
considerring this will be in the benefit of all larger veo holders, I am expecting it will pass.
06:07
@Jbreezy0 could you help open the oracle for me for this, as I have no idea how to do it.
MF
06:08
Mr Flintstone
we would need a few oracles if we used futarchy for this decision
EP
06:09
Evans Pan
You are expert, please do it.
Z
06:09
Zack
Inflating money is no good. That makes the rest less valuable. It will unfairly burden some people to pay for updates that do not benefit them, and it will cost too little to other people who have a large benefit from the update.

It is better to use dominant assurance contracts, that way each user is incentivized to donate in proportion to how much it benefits them personally.
EP
06:10
Evans Pan
@Jbreezy0 lets unite top 10 holders, we can beat anyone who want to against it.
Z
06:10
Zack
I think there is no good way for us to decide how to spend money that we print from no-where.
People will make bets to try and get us to just give the newly printed money to them, right?
06:10
In reply to this message
that isn't how the oracle works.
MF
06:11
Mr Flintstone
someone still needs to decide how to allocate the money even if we create a community pubkey
06:11
there seems to be a lot of redundancy
06:11
that DAC already serves
EP
06:12
Evans Pan
@Jbreezy0 yes, how to allocate and how to manage, it shoud be designed, I think we can vote for some delegates to manage this fund.
MF
06:12
Mr Flintstone
Hopefully we can use markets instead of voting
06:12
that’s the point of amoveo isn’t it after all
Z
06:12
Zack
In reply to this message
"voting" "delegate"
Maybe Amoveo just isn't the right project for you.
MF
06:12
Mr Flintstone
I am more than happy to help set up DAC (and even contribute lots of money) for veo UI tools and the like
EP
06:13
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
maybe it doesnt mean Amoveo is not for me, it means Amoveo is not at the stage to fullfill its purpose yet.
06:15
In reply to this message
me too. I have seen what you have done for Amoveo. And you are experienced in Amoveo and you know what is the best for Amoveo.
Z
06:16
Zack
This community is decidedly in support of only using cryptoeconomically secure mechanisms.
Voting and delegation are not cryptoeconomically secure.
If you want voting, this is not the right project for you.
T
06:17
Tromp
Can futarchy decide the allocation of a development fund ? Zack or is it to complicated to implement a system like that?
06:18
DAC could compete with the fund that is being described and that could give us more information on which would help the project grow in the long term dont you think
Z
06:19
Zack
In reply to this message
you can ask futarchy how to spend money to benefit Amoveo.

But Inflating money is no good. That makes the rest less valuable. It will unfairly burden some people to pay for updates that do not benefit them, and it will cost too little to other people who have a large benefit from the update.
EP
06:19
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
I am just trying to use some common language to communicate. I am still learning what futarchy is and how it works.
Z
06:20
Zack
socialized losses and privatized gains is not an efficient system.
b
06:20
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
But i think there is a valid point here
T
06:21
Tromp
In reply to this message
Do you mean that more veos would have to be made towards the fund? Couldnt it come from the existing reward yo miners?
EP
06:21
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
what if the miners are the large holders?
b
06:21
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
If it's for a decision to be made on the benefits of amoveo, why would you oppose Zack?
Z
06:21
Zack
if we use inflation instead of dominant assurance contract, that would socialize the cost of upgrades. But the benefit of the upgrade is largely privatized on the person being paid to do it.

Dominant assurance contracts are a more efficient way to raise money to pay for public goods.

If the Amoveo community is not willing to use dominant assurance contracts, if we aren't willing to use our own product, then how can we ever expect to get other people to use it?
b
06:22
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
And how do or anyone else know that in advance, that is how it should be
06:22
I am in real need of making this happen, a community deciding on the budget
Z
06:23
Zack
In reply to this message
sure. but we should use dominant assurance contract and futarchy. Not inflation or management.
b
06:23
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
I have no idea, this is a community effort everyonw should decide on their expertise
06:23
I can't discuss with you the how, just the why
06:23
06:24
I am not joking if you explain how it can be done i develop the front-end for this to be possible
Z
06:25
Zack
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eating_your_own_dog_food
If we don't use Amoveo while developing Amoveo, then no one else will use Amoveo for their projects either.
b
06:25
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
In reply to this message
😂
Z
06:26
Zack
Amoveo is a product for raising funds for public goods.
If we can't use Amoveo to raise funds for the development of Amoveo, then we have failed.
b
06:26
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
Ok lets raise it with stable coins, that locks up amoveo
EP
06:27
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
Please get the UI done before thinking about using it. We need a wheel to drive a car. now you are asking us to drive a car without the driving wheel.
Z
06:27
Zack
In reply to this message
instead of layering derivatives by pricing them in each other, I think it is almost always better to have a portfolio of VEO-denominated derivatives to achieve the risk profile you are interested in.
b
06:28
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
I am really lost on most concepts and i really consider myself not that dumb.

There is a lot of understanding to get into crypto, multiply that x 10 = amoveo
06:29
This is not your fault, this is just how complicated it is the problem your solving
06:30
Most coins they show a big smile of a girl's face and some graphic designers dream
06:30
Then some stupidity of conquering the world and an explorer showing a testnet and a "future mainnet"
06:31
You have everything besides that
06:31
No one ia asking for the girl, just where do we press the buttons 🕹
MF
06:33
Mr Flintstone
I think a futarchy UI would be great
EP
06:33
Evans Pan
@zack I remember long time ago, your logic not developing the UI is coz the product is not ready yet. So we agree. now the products are ready, why still not any UI for non tech user??
MF
06:33
Mr Flintstone
it could make it much more understandable
06:35
I’m happy to work with someone and explain the concept if they want to put together a UI
Z
06:36
Zack
The current UI for making bets in a market, including futarchy bets, is pretty good, I am happy to make changes if you have suggestions.
06:37
Saying there is no UI for futarchy is just false.
I rewrote the entire Chalang VM into javascript so that we could put the futarchy UI into the browser in wallet.html
06:41
http://139.59.144.76:8080/wallet.html
We had this UI for futarchy and derivatives since before the genesis block, so there was never a time when we lacked a UI for futarchy.
EP
06:41
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
lets make a market, to ask the community if the current UI is good enough for users?
06:43
you keep talking the UI you did is good. how many people agree with you??
06:44
and how many times here various people mentioned about we need a better UI and you just ignored??
Z
06:44
Zack
Evan is a troll right?
EP
06:45
Evans Pan
again
Z
06:45
Zack
I can ban?
EP
06:45
Evans Pan
everytime someone questioning you, you said the same thing. Please use the futarchy to ban me@
b
06:45
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
In reply to this message
😂😂😂😂
Z
06:46
Zack
I spent over a hundred hours this week working on javascript UI.
Saying that I am ignoring the UI is a lie.
EP
06:46
Evans Pan
if you ban me now, you are not using the tool of Amoveo.
06:46
I really appreciate to know that.
Z
06:46
Zack
I wont ban you unless someone like Mr Flinstone or Sy or OK agrees that you are a troll.
EP
06:47
Evans Pan
I suggested to open a market to decide whether the current UI is good or not, how do you think?
Z
06:47
Zack
https://github.com/zack-bitcoin/light-node-amoveo/pulse
500 additions, 250 deletions this week for the javascript UI.
06:48
If the UI was good enough, I wouldn't be spending the majority of my development time working on it.
b
06:51
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
Just to say good night and leave my particular point clear. I think that Amoveo is walking towards an excellent path. I have said several times already i believe 2019 is for showing what it has been done and Zack is basically doing that.
Z
06:51
Zack
EP
06:51
Evans Pan
Good efforts. But I still believe the UI need further development, maybe by someone else better at front end development.
b
06:51
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
I think the community is just eager to test the beast and let it loose, so pushing towards putting labels into the buttons and start the engine you've built
EP
06:51
Evans Pan
06:52
We need a morden UI like our competitor do. Then we can appeal more users.
06:57
We all believe veo is better than rep. but a single market has 26 eth locked in on rep. Total veo locked in channels is less than 26 eth. If we can catchup in the UI side, we maybe much better off.
Z
06:58
Zack
In reply to this message
Which step of making bets in Amoveo markets is confusing for you? How recently did you last test it out?

If you have specific issues, I can fix them. but if you are just here to say I have no skills, there isn't anything for me to do for you.
EP
07:02
Evans Pan
thanks for ask. First, I wish it can be more visually appealling. And second I wish the process can be organized into a few webpages, one step one page, and then I click the next to the next step. It would be much eaiser for people to use in this way.
Z
07:03
Zack
So you have successfully made a bet in a market before?
07:03
Or are you making suggestions on how to change something that you have never attempted to use?
07:03
You need to try it out first before deciding what should change.
EP
07:05
Evans Pan
I tried to make bets for a few times. And I spend at least 5 mins to figure out how to do it with yout github guide. But I cant follow.
Z
07:05
Zack
which page were you trying to make a bet in? Which step did you get stuck on? What page were you looking at on github?
Z
07:10
Zack
this isn't a page for betting, this is a page for asking new oracle questions.
07:10
that is why the link to this page is "Ask the oracle new questions."
EP
07:12
Evans Pan
There was somewhere to click to show the markets, but I cant find it now.
07:12
you changed the page.
Z
07:13
Zack
So I guess the part that is confusing to you is figuring out where to go to participate in a market.

Looking at this page https://github.com/zack-bitcoin/amoveo
in the section about Light nodes. there is a link that says "A light node that currently has markets is here." and it goes to this page: http://139.59.144.76:8080/wallet.html

I guess this is not clear enough. We need to make it more obvious where to go to participate in a market.
EP
07:13
Evans Pan
07:14
it was like this
Z
07:14
Zack
http://139.59.144.76:8080/explorer.html
you are thinking of this page
07:16
this is the explorer served by a single computer, so you can see what markets that computer has set up available for trading.
07:16
the part that says "Block Explorer" in the readme links to an example of this page from one of the servers.
EP
07:17
Evans Pan
so where is the markets on the page you refer?
Z
07:19
Zack
click "list markets" to see the list
07:19
that server has a couple
EP
07:22
Evans Pan
07:22
no list markets
I
07:23
Instinct
07:23
At the bottom
EP
07:23
Evans Pan
thats different page
07:23
explorer page
07:24
I am on the .wallet page
Z
07:24
Zack
the explorer page lists the markets set up on that server.

wallet.html is for accessing your VEO and channels.
EP
07:26
Evans Pan
yes I know the list markets on explorer, but you send me the link to the /wallet page to bet on a market
Z
07:27
Zack
I wonder if people will even use a market on a server after the next hard update.

Once we have a limit-order at the step of contract creation, then the advantages of the centralized market are almost gone.
07:27
Maybe someday when the blocks are almost full, people will start using the centralized markets again to have less transaction fees.
07:28
It sure it good that we did not hire a UI developer for the centralized market, because now it looks like we will not be using this tool very much at all.
EP
07:29
Evans Pan
so answering your question, after I listed the markets, I dont know what to do.
Z
07:29
Zack
did you already make a channel with the server using the wallet.html page?
EP
07:30
Evans Pan
no
Z
07:30
Zack
You need to make a channel with the server to participate in the centralized market.
07:30
But I am thinking it is not worth our time to improve this tool, because people would probably rather use the limit order p2p derivatives instead.
07:30
at least in the next couple of years
EP
07:31
Evans Pan
ok even under your guide, it has been more than 10 mins, but I am still looking around how to bet on a market. Thats the point.
Z
07:31
Zack
Evan is a troll, right?
EP
07:32
Evans Pan
If you are willing to guide me how to use the new P2P tool, let us see how fast the process can be.
MF
07:32
Mr Flintstone
that is probably better
07:32
than the markets
Z
07:32
Zack
Sure, we need testers. I will add you to the group for that
EP
07:34
Evans Pan
The wallet page is more advanced after the new tools and so confused for users.
Z
07:34
Zack
I messaged you in the testing page, do you see it?
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EA
08:43
Eric Arsenault
In reply to this message
I’m working on UX for prediction markets, would love to connect to get a better understanding of this part of the project
08:47
(the futarchy bit)
MF
09:08
Mr Flintstone
sounds good
Z
11:20
Zack
I bought 2 veo worth of USD stablecoin from Evans Pan at a price of $60.9 per veo, and got paid 5% premium.
So I am making arbitrage profits between 2 different stablecoin bets of about 0.09 veo
and I have 8 long-veo that are worth 8.05 veo now.

So I have an expected profit so far of 0.14 veo, on my 12 veo invested. More than 1% in a month, in VEO terms.

derivatives are fun.
Deleted invited Deleted Account
Beer invited Beer
18:18
Deleted Account
Nais
Z
18:25
Zack
Today is the 1 year anniversary of the Genesis block.

Looking back, I am glad to have the support of such great people. I hope to continue having the privilege of serving you all.
🙇‍♂
T
18:33
Tromp
🍺🍺
b
18:37
bitcoinsfacil - pedro
🙌👏
AK
18:45
Alex K
🎉
J
18:51
Jurko | Bermuda capital 📈
💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻
19:50
Deleted Account
🍾
EP
19:58
Evans Pan
In reply to this message
for UX development, can we use the veil + rep model? so the UX for amoveo can be an independent project, the UX project can look for funding by themselves and doesnt need funded by Amoveo community.
Z
20:05
Zack
In reply to this message
That is what exan tech is doing, I think
EP
20:13
Evans Pan
Thanks for Zack making the p2p trade with me. I think the P2P derivative tool is the most marketable and usable tool on Amoveo now. But the process with the javascript UI is far too complicated. I wish we can have much simplied process to make a trade, even if some some part of the process is centralized and not blockchain-based.
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Z
21:41
Zack
In reply to this message
The limit order p2p hard update is in the works.
This will make the interface much simpler.
You can post a trade anywhere, and anyone can accept it.
JS
23:34
Jon Snow
In reply to this message
Congratulations!!! 🍻🍻🍻
J
23:58
Jeans
In reply to this message
Congratulations zack for your work. Is it possible to create a perpetual derivative contract with Amoveo? Perhaps with two oracles in parallel and offset for the time of the resolution time, an automatic creation of the oracles and transfer of funds. I don't know if it's possible.
3 March 2019
[
00:01
[Riki]
In reply to this message
Word
Z
00:06
Zack
In reply to this message
A financial derivative needs an expiration date.

Some people specialize in owning rice 8 months before it is planted.
Every month they sell their contracts for 7 month rice, and buy new contracts for 8 month rice.
MF
00:06
Mr Flintstone
one thing to note is that zacks reward has gone down with the block reward going down
00:07
so his inflation contribution has gone down
AK
00:42
A K
the idea was that the price would go up
00:43
so in USD terms shouldv’e stayed the same )
Z
00:44
Zack
I don't think anyone has supported the idea of a constant-value block reward.

Personally, I think the reward should be in proportion to the demand for new coins.
C
00:48
Chris 🍞
In reply to this message
👏👏🎉🎉👏👏 congratz!
lets grab a beer soon =)
J
01:27
Jeans
In reply to this message
Yes, I understand that. But, for example, if I think that the price of gas will increase in my country over the next few years.
I want to cover myself against this possible increase so as not to impact too much the costs of my travels in the future. And I just want to put some of my pay sometimes in insurance for that. Then recover my potential winnings if the price of gas is expensive a few years later or maybe lose some money if the price has not gone up.
I have the feeling that we could do something like this with Amoveo and it could interest people if it's easy to use and if they understand the risks they're taking.
Z
01:29
Zack
figure out how much gas you will need.
Buy enough gas stablecoin to cover your needs for the years in question, but have it expire in like 1 month.
At the end of the money, take out enough money to buy the next month's gas, and put the rest into a new 1 month contract.
Do this every month until the money runs out.
01:32
Deleted Account
Hi zack, would it be possible for amoveo's oracle system to create some kind of proof of unique human? Like if we want to have a list of decentralized id and we want to ensure that it is a list if id of unique individuals? Like if you ask an oracle is this person unique from a list of persons?
Z
01:34
Zack
In reply to this message
No, the oracle is based on futarchy.
Whether you make one big bet as an individual, or divide yourself up, and use the same money to make 100 tiny bets as different people, it makes no difference to how the protocol functions.
It is completely resistant to sybil attacks, so we have no need of identity, which is great for privacy reasons.
01:37
Deleted Account
In reply to this message
Thanks
J
01:37
Jeans
In reply to this message
Ok, thanks zack! I will think about doing this :-)
SS
06:24
Spike Spiegel
If Amoveo allowed for cheap shorting of https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/clams/ it would be nice to use it to create synthetic stablecoin from clams https://coinlend.org/ ( ~ 800% annualised rate at Poloniex )
Z
06:30
Zack
In reply to this message
you can do amoveo derivatives with any amount of leverage. (is that what "annualized rate" means?)
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SS
15:40
Spike Spiegel
One can lend coins to the exchange for margin trading and get great returns but to actually derisk this strategy ( because you don't want to hold clams ) you have to short such coin elsewhere - preferably without counter-party risk
Z
15:42
Zack
Looks like the exchange wants you to lend them money so they can steal it all
15:42
If you don't control the private key, it is not your money.
SS
15:46
Spike Spiegel
Maybe - but the interest rate is so high because there is no way to hedge the risk
15:46
Also I think thet by buying insurance against exchange stealing customer money one can have best of both world
15:47
With exchange risk explicitly priced in insurance cost
Z
15:47
Zack
You can only make a bet if someone is willing to bet against you.
15:48
No one wants to pay you to get scammed
15:49
It isn't necessarily possible to ask an Oracle if one individual had their money stolen by an exchange.
You can't Google for this info on an individual
SS
15:50
Spike Spiegel
one individual had their money stolen by an exchange. -- of course

But Quadriga going down is well known event
Z
15:50
Zack
If lending to this exchange is such a profitable deal, why would someone bet against you for you to hedge, when they could lend to this exchange themselves?
SS
15:51
Spike Spiegel
Because there is:
1. currency risk - high yield is only from lending shitcoin
2. exchange risk - exchange may default

So I need to reduce both risks
Z
15:55
Zack
If I have a risky opportunity that is only available in my city, then I could use a derivative to hedge my risk and give people outside the city the ability to participate.

Betting with me is less profitable than investing directly, but since they don't live in my city this is the best that is available to them.

In your example it is an exchange that anyone can sign up for.
So no one would ever take the other side of your bet, since they can just invest directly and earn a higher expected profit.
SS
15:55
Spike Spiegel
Sure - but they have to know about it
15:56
There are multiple ways to earn money in crypto available to anybody yet only few are able to do it - for example frontrunning or liquidation of MKR CDP's
Z
15:56
Zack
I am assuming they will read the amoveo oracle question before making a bet about the outcome.
Once they read it, then they know about the opportunity.
SS
15:57
Spike Spiegel
Ok, so it's bad idea then
Z
15:57
Zack
In reply to this message
Sure. There are many useful applications of amoveo.

I am just trying to help you understand why this particular application, lending money to an exchange, does not work.
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17:59
Deleted Account
Is there any derivatives or contacts currently running on mainnet ?